Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4A 0x4a18…8fcf crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 556d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$258 (+13%) realized +$289 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate68%27W / 13L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$199
politics 42% +$1
other 6% +$3
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +29.0% +16.7% 62% 54% -12.3%
≤30d 13 +29.0% +16.7% 62% 54% -12.3%
≤90d 14 +26.9% +14.8% 64% 50% -12.1%
all 40 +22.6% +10.9% 68% 35% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 35% +1.5%
10% +0.3% 35% -8.2%
15% -9.4% 35% -17.1%
20% -18.3% 35% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$289
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses27 / 13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage556d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 54¢ 55¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 53¢ 42¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-22%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 73¢ 71¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Down 52¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$18 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$21 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$22 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$34 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Apr 28 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 10 $50 +$46 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 10 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 10 $50 +$40 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 09 $50 +$46 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 09 $50 +$41 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 09 $50 +$43 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 09 $20 +$19 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 09 $40 −$3 -8%
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (Decemb Jan 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 102.5 billion views by December 31? Dec 20 $20 $0 +0%
Yieldbasis FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 30 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Nov 30 $110 +$110 +100%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 10 $9 $0 -1%
Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Oct 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave qualify for the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Fina Oct 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Olympique Lyon play in Ligue 1? Aug 20 $19 $0 +1%
Will Adelita Grijalva win the Democratic Primary for the Arizona's 7th Jul 16 $19 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win The Bronx in the New York City Mayoral Democrati Jun 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Colombia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $21 −$2 -7%
Will Cooper Flagg be the first pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election? May 22 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Alberta in the next May 05 $21 $0 +1%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 21 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 23 $766 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $27 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $43 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $44 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $47 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.69 · official $54.31 · 123 history records