Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4A 0x4a17…048e crypto 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$55
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%102W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$861now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$380
7 days+$457
14 days+$368
30 days+$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$405
sports 23% +$292
other 10% +$115
finance 1% +$11
world 0% −$35
politics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +54.1% +39.4% 44% 40% +36.7%
≤30d 40 +36.7% +23.7% 55% 42% +3.1%
≤90d 109 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 40% -3.2%
all 196 -0.1% -9.6% 52% 44% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 44% -10.7%
10% -18.3% 39% -19.2%
15% -26.2% 33% -27.0%
20% -33.4% 27% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$861
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses102 / 94
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions17
Markets (closed)196 / 213
History coverage224d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 60¢ $300 $355 +$55 (+18%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Under 99¢ 99¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+69%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 84¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $30 $17 −$13 (-42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 69¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Over $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+47%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Over $11 $2 −$9 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +69%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $133 −$7 -5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $301 −$1 -0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $21 +$387 +1883%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$6 +42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$27 -52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $250 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $62 +$33 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$53 +206%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $122 +$194 +158%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $80 +$6 +8%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $10 +$3 +32%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $10 +$6 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$8 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$5 +225%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$7 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $286 +$53 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $449 −$163 -36%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $90 −$88 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 30 $51 +$23 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $24 −$9 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 15? May 16 $19 +$5 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 15? May 14 $73 −$70 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 15? May 14 $73 −$70 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 15? May 14 $0 $0 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 14? May 13 $24 −$24 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $10 +$17 +158%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $152 +$37 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 56m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 56m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 58m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $11 59m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $300 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $143 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $300 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $408 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 88¢ $126 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $2 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $1 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $2 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $3 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $10 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $2 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $24 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $100 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $252 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $100 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $150 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $860.67 · official $860.67 (match) · 554 history records