Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a13…d399 crypto 1201 markets active 15h ago coverage 50d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%551W / 650L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$11
14 days−$25
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 295 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 34% -8.9%
≤30d 1045 -1.4% -10.8% 45% 41% -10.7%
≤90d 1201 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 40% -11.6%
all 1201 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 40% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 40% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 32% -20.1%
15% -27.7% 19% -27.8%
20% -34.8% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses551 / 650
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1201 / 1201
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1201 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -50%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $7 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records