Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4a10…92f1 crypto 1857 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+1%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%967W / 802L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$286
14 days+$389
30 days+$375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$397
other 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 369 +20.9% +9.4% 75% 75% +6.2%
≤30d 462 +18.7% +7.4% 73% 73% +6.8%
≤90d 1769 +4.5% -5.5% 55% 54% -3.8%
all 1769 +4.5% -5.5% 55% 54% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 54% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 50% -13.0%
15% -22.8% 46% -21.4%
20% -30.3% 39% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses967 / 802
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1769 / 1857
History coverage59d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1769 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3168 history records