Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4A 0x4a10…25ff other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$320 (+27%) realized +$324 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$132
14 days+$155
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$319
sports 25% +$11
politics 19% +$25
world 3% −$40
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +172.3% +146.3% 100% 100% +146.3%
≤30d 4 +16.3% +5.2% 50% 50% +66.5%
≤90d 6 -4.0% -13.2% 50% 50% +18.2%
all 17 +38.6% +25.4% 65% 65% +24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.4% 65% +24.8%
10% +13.4% 53% +12.9%
15% +2.4% 47% +2.0%
20% -7.6% 41% -8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$23 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.28 per $1 lost it wins $3.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized+$324
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage168d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $76 +$132 +172%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $68 +$63 +93%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Apr 11 $231 +$25 +11%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $50 +$61 +122%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $30 +$107 +356%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $19 +$15 +78%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $13 +$6 +47%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $64 −$51 -80%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $52 +$12 +23%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $30 +$22 +75%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 13 $57 −$4 -8%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $17 +$12 +69%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $25 −$4 -16%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $25 +$3 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $76 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $68 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 72d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the SELL Yes 90¢ $65 78d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the SELL Yes 88¢ $191 85d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY Yes 80¢ $231 114d
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-02-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 133d
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 133d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 139d
Rams vs. Seahawks SELL Seahawks 100¢ $33 153d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 56¢ $19 154d
Patriots vs. Broncos SELL Patriots 100¢ $19 154d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Patriots 68¢ $13 154d
Rams vs. Bears SELL Bears 7¢ $13 160d
Rams vs. Bears BUY Bears 35¢ $64 161d
49ers vs. Seahawks SELL Seahawks 100¢ $64 161d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 81¢ $52 161d
Bills vs. Broncos SELL Broncos 100¢ $52 161d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 57¢ $30 161d
Texans vs. Steelers SELL Texans 100¢ $30 166d
Texans vs. Steelers BUY Texans 59¢ $17 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.24 · official $341.24 (match) · 42 history records