Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4a0f…6c12 crypto 609 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$672 (-1%) realized −$717 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate67%406W / 200L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,043
finance 3% +$16
world 3% +$145
other 1% +$56
politics 0% +$19
sports 0% +$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -21.2% -28.7% 0% 0% -28.7%
≤30d 2 -14.0% -22.2% 0% 0% -23.6%
≤90d 76 -29.9% -36.6% 45% 36% -4.7%
all 606 -6.1% -15.0% 67% 40% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 40% -11.1%
10% -23.1% 23% -19.6%
15% -30.6% 14% -27.4%
20% -37.4% 8% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$28 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized−$717
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses406 / 200
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)606 / 609
History coverage156d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 606 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 27¢ $55 $133 +$78 (+143%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $75 $57 −$18 (-25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $66 $51 −$15 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $43 −$9 -21%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $83 +$16 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 01 $1 $0 -43%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 15 $38 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 13 $44 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 10 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 09 $40 −$25 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 09 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 09 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 09 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 09 $5 +$9 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 08 $5 +$6 +110%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 08 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 08 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 08 $6 −$5 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 08 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 08 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $34 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $26 8d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 59d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 69d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? SELL No 74¢ $37 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 77d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 96¢ $48 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $14 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 81d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? BUY No 75¢ $38 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $6 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $7 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $14 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $10 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.75 · official $240.75 (match) · 2122 history records