Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4a0c…7ccd other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$557 (+13%) realized +$563 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$392
7 days+$283
14 days+$562
30 days+$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$550
sports 46% +$75
world 3% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +0.5% -9.0% 48% 48% -2.0%
≤30d 48 +5.9% -4.2% 52% 52% +3.1%
≤90d 48 +5.9% -4.2% 52% 52% +3.1%
all 48 +5.9% -4.2% 52% 52% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 52% +3.1%
10% -13.4% 46% -6.8%
15% -21.8% 44% -15.8%
20% -29.4% 29% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$47 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$563
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage11d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 74¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+52%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 44¢ 16¢ $50 $18 −$32 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $101 +$50 +49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$53 -52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$166 +325%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $201 −$200 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 −$73 -73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $322 +$114 +36%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$36 +36%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$77 +76%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$9 -61%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 −$5 -5%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$91 +45%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $132 −$69 -52%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$73 -72%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$17 +342%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$11 -11%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$142 +139%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$53 -53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$3 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 −$12 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 26h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $48 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 34h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 51¢ $101 34h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 46h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 77¢ $101 2d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 79¢ $101 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Haiti 18¢ $2 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Haiti 18¢ $26 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 62¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 14¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 87¢ $301 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 45¢ $102 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.63 · official $93.63 (match) · 90 history records