Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4a0c…0852 sports 585 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,117 (+2%) realized +$1,127 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%336W / 244L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days−$220
14 days−$225
30 days−$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$1,593
other 14% −$286
world 0% −$146
crypto 0% −$70
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.2% -15.1% 58% 58% -18.4%
≤30d 74 -3.1% -12.3% 61% 61% -19.0%
≤90d 349 -5.1% -14.1% 56% 54% -12.3%
all 580 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 56% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 56% -7.7%
10% -19.8% 51% -16.5%
15% -27.5% 38% -24.6%
20% -34.6% 26% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$69 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$1,127
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses336 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions3
Markets (closed)580 / 585
History coverage148d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 60¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-23%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$10 -20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$19 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$18 +59%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 +$14 +41%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 +$16 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $24 +$6 +26%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $127 −$126 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$42 +42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$36 +36%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $156 +$61 +39%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 +$36 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $48 −$48 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $366 −$32 -9%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $159 +$41 +26%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$17 +82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $122 +$51 +42%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Cambodia (-1.5) Jun 04 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1 $0 +44%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $4 +$1 +29%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +40%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 02 $1 +$1 +90%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +50%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 02 $1 +$1 +65%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $1 +$1 +65%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +55%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 $0 +17%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 +$2 +76%
Rosenborg BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 4.5 May 30 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $1 +$1 +47%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) May 29 $2 −$1 -99%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $1 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $40 33m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 40¢ $24 35m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 40¢ $12 35m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 40¢ $1 35m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 40¢ $3 35m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $34 54m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Croatia: Both Te BUY 29¢ $5 54m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $31 58m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $50 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Gha BUY 9¢ $2 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $51 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $36 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $24 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $24 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $127 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $68 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $218 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $156 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $71 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $48 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.78 · official $101.78 · 1513 history records