Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a0b…ff39 crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day91.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$36
other 4% −$3
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 45% -13.9%
≤30d 33 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 45% -13.9%
≤90d 33 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 45% -13.9%
all 33 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 45% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 45% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 33% -22.1%
15% -27.1% 24% -29.6%
20% -34.2% 21% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day91.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$15 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $75 −$15 -21%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $32 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $101 −$93 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $45 +$25 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $45 +$16 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $96 +$33 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$2 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$11 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$9 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $38 −$25 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$16 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $44 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $45 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $30 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $86 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $45 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records