Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:29:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a09…bcfa world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
other 29% $0
politics 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -1.4% -10.8% 31% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 16 -0.9% -10.4% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 30 +0.3% -9.2% 47% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage491d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $32 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $13 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $16 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 14 $11 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +2%
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Le-Moyne vs. Stonehill Mar 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 28? Mar 20 $7 $0 +3%
Southern Utah vs. Utah Valley Mar 01 $5 $0 -4%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 01 $5 $0 -9%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $32 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $32 18h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $9 23h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $23 23h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $32 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $33 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $33 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $24 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $17 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $14 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $7 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $8 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $30 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records