Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4a07…de1b crypto 1519 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$170 (-3%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate58%883W / 629L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day56.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$69
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$257
sports 19% −$26
other 2% +$2
world 1% −$3
weather 1% −$2
finance 0% −$7
tech 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -15.9% -23.9% 45% 44% -23.3%
≤30d 415 -6.2% -15.2% 32% 31% -15.1%
≤90d 1512 -4.3% -13.4% 58% 36% -14.1%
all 1512 -4.3% -13.4% 58% 36% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 36% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 22% -22.3%
15% -29.2% 12% -29.8%
20% -36.2% 7% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses883 / 629
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1512 / 1519
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day56.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1512 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 38¢ 61¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 41¢ 42¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? No 73¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$13 -44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -30%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -89%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$9 -85%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -87%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$3 -60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +118%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $5 −$3 -52%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $5 +$6 +121%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $5 −$2 -47%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -91%
Tucuman: Nicolas Villalon vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $5 +$2 +34%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 44m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 78¢ $22 45m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 46m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $12 46m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 50m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 54m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY Yes $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under $1 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 27¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $5 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 55¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 10¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 63¢ $10 2d
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) SELL FUT Esports 82¢ $6 2d
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 70¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 46¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 27¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $5 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 24¢ $2 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 58¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.90 · official $24.90 (match) · 3500 history records