Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:05:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a06…6b1d crypto 409 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1795 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$796 (+2%) realized +$712 · open +$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%207W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day1794.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,419
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1795 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 407 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 45% -4.7%
≤30d 407 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 45% -4.7%
≤90d 407 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 45% -4.7%
all 407 +1.1% -8.5% 51% 45% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1794.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 45% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 44% -13.9%
15% -25.2% 44% -22.2%
20% -32.6% 41% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$92 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$712
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses207 / 200
Open positions2
Markets (closed)407 / 409
History coverage2d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day1794.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 47¢ 80¢ $120 $203 +$83 (+70%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $150 +$169 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $240 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $120 −$59 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$29 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $120 −$59 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $150 −$89 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $180 +$73 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$64 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $58 +$23 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$31 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$29 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$29 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $57 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $120 +$68 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$29 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $58 +$62 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $90 +$98 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $435 +$606 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $210 +$247 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $312 +$396 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $210 +$247 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $120 +$146 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $150 +$169 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $180 +$208 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $90 +$98 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $120 +$133 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $120 +$68 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $184 +$135 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$64 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$31 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $90 −$29 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $28 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $30 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $30 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.68 · official $264.68 (match) · 2945 history records