Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4a06…1987 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$45 (+4%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 42% +$51
other 39% −$13
world 19% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +24.1% +12.2% 100% 100% +11.8%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 83% 58% -8.3%
≤90d 16 +3.9% -6.0% 88% 56% -5.4%
all 16 +3.9% -6.0% 88% 56% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 56% -5.4%
10% -15.0% 19% -14.5%
15% -23.2% 12% -22.7%
20% -30.7% 0% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$40 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage92d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $84 +$10 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $57 +$27 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $47 +$10 +21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 +$6 +15%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $33 +$8 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $108 −$70 -64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $107 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $97 +$9 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $88 +$9 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 24 $85 +$3 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 21 $73 +$12 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 30 $52 +$21 +41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 29 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 29 $99 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $84 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $57 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 98¢ $57 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $47 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $41 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $41 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $33 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $28 18d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 18d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $39 22d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $108 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL No 91¢ $108 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? BUY No 90¢ $107 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $106 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $97 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? BUY Yes 90¢ $88 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 98¢ $89 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 94¢ $85 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 97¢ $85 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 84¢ $73 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 100¢ $52 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 95¢ $50 67d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? SELL No 99¢ $102 83d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $99 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records