Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:00:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4a05…f1f2 other 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+3%) realized +$70 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate64%48W / 27L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$11
crypto 28% +$14
finance 12% +$25
world 10% +$6
politics 9% +$11
culture 4% +$3
economics 3% −$2
tech 2% +$1
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +27.4% +15.2% 100% 100% +15.2%
≤30d 7 +9.5% -0.9% 71% 29% -1.4%
≤90d 43 +1.5% -8.2% 77% 33% -3.0%
all 75 +1.8% -7.9% 64% 24% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 24% -5.6%
10% -16.7% 9% -14.7%
15% -24.8% 4% -22.9%
20% -32.1% 1% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.8 per $1 lost it wins $3.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses48 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)75 / 102
History coverage124d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $25 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 78¢ 68¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 76¢ 76¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+43%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 43¢ 31¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 85¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+43%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 80¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 73¢ 47¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 93¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 07 $19 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 07 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 07 $22 +$2 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $18 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $21 +$6 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? May 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? May 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 16 $12 +$4 +38%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 16 $15 +$2 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 16 $41 +$4 +10%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 16 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 08 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 08 $18 +$3 +18%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 08 $9 $0 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 08 $23 +$2 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 08 $19 +$1 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 08 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 08 $11 +$1 +13%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 08 $20 +$5 +26%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 21 $13 −$12 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 18 $22 +$6 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 18 $38 +$5 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 18 $14 +$2 +11%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $6 $0 -2%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $14 +$2 +13%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $56 +$20 +36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 01 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 01 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? Apr 01 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? Apr 01 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Apr 01 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $2 $0 -18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 23 $34 +$1 +3%
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Zendaya attend the Oscars? Mar 16 $3 +$2 +89%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars? Mar 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars? Mar 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Timothée Chalamet attend the Oscars? Mar 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $44 +$3 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 23m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 28m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $0 29m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 76¢ $7 33m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 41m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $27 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 81¢ $5 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 81¢ $8 8d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 8d
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 67¢ $3 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $0 8d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $43 8d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $12 8d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $25 8d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 90¢ $13 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 77¢ $9 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 16d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 62¢ $10 16d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $24 16d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $13 16d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 33¢ $2 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $11 16d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 85¢ $0 26d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 85¢ $4 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.79 · official $118.49 · 405 history records