Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a04…33ac other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate17%12W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$2
other 36% −$2
economics 9% $0
world 8% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.7% -8.0% 21% 7% -9.6%
≤30d 71 -1.9% -11.3% 17% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 71 -1.9% -11.3% 17% 3% -9.7%
all 71 -1.9% -11.3% 17% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses12 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage24d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $131 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $86 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $88 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $88 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $89 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $91 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +10%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $91 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in July 2026? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 6d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 9d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 9d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 9d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 9d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records