Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a02…7875 sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$21 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%60W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$6
14 days−$22
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$52
other 3% −$65
finance 1% +$8
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 33% -6.4%
≤30d 96 +10.0% -0.5% 47% 41% -4.2%
≤90d 133 -2.0% -11.3% 45% 38% -12.4%
all 133 -2.0% -11.3% 45% 38% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 38% -12.4%
10% -19.8% 31% -20.8%
15% -27.5% 26% -28.4%
20% -34.6% 17% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses60 / 73
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage36d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$16 +77%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 +$13 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 +$45 +442%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $36 +$17 +45%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $19 −$18 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $20 +$24 +119%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $50 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $17 +$33 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $8 −$8 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $15 +$13 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $33 +$36 +110%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $34 +$48 +143%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $25 +$6 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $12 −$12 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $15 −$5 -33%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $11 −$11 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $8 −$8 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $25 +$4 +15%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $10 +$31 +307%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $8 +$34 +414%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $13 +$12 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $13 −$12 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $16 +$37 +224%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $23 +$8 +34%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $16 +$25 +152%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Tamara Korpatsch May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marie Bouzkova May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $50 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $14 +$13 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $15 +$17 +114%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $9 +$241 +2796%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Julia Grabher vs Amanda Anisimova May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 82¢ $0 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 83¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 4h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 65¢ $15 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $15 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 10¢ $0 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 10¢ $8 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 80¢ $53 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 28h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $36 28h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 38h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $11 38h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $14 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $19 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 23¢ $1 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $2 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 25¢ $2 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $4 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 23¢ $20 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 45¢ $5 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 63¢ $10 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 63¢ $10 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 45¢ $15 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 24¢ $31 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 253 history records