Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:34:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4a02…8b73 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,094 (-22%) realized −$3,014 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate48%40W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$605now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days−$562
14 days−$2,779
30 days−$2,772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$2,806
other 20% +$141
world 9% +$190
crypto 8% −$214
tech 5% −$6
politics 2% −$6
finance 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -61.0% -64.7% 19% 19% -16.1%
≤30d 50 -49.7% -54.5% 24% 24% -33.1%
≤90d 70 -34.9% -41.1% 41% 29% -27.9%
all 84 -28.2% -35.1% 48% 33% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 33% -27.4%
10% -41.3% 23% -34.3%
15% -46.9% 19% -40.7%
20% -52.1% 15% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$126 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$605
Realized−$3,014
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses40 / 44
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions7
Markets (closed)84 / 93
History coverage137d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 96¢ 97¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $150 $70 −$80 (-53%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 70¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,713 +$524 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $404 −$344 -85%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $442 −$440 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $310 +$283 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $138 −$138 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $307 −$300 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $405 +$273 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $223 −$220 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SpaceX list on the NYSE? Jun 12 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of February? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tesla reach $420 in March? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on February 2? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of March? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Warriors vs. Pistons Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 26? Jun 12 $195 −$56 -29%
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO7) - King Pro League Play Jun 12 $334 −$334 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$402 +197%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $102 −$54 -53%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $406 −$274 -67%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 8? Jun 08 $102 +$130 +127%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,019 −$2,019 -100%
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? Jun 04 $101 +$25 +24%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$26 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $50 +$57 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 16¢ $36 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,237 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,505 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,006 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $202 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $38 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $22 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $240 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $404 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $204 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a BUY 3¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $594 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $69 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $18 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $604.82 · official $640.10 · 231 history records