Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a01…88d9 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate68%19W / 9L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$846per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$5
economics 21% −$5
other 20% −$5
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 28 -6.9% -15.8% 68% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,200) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses19 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage233d
Avg bet$846
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? May 19 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 14? Feb 25 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 25 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 5? Feb 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 26? Jan 31 $38 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $4,638 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $4,664 −$9 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 11? Jan 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 05 $3,118 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $3,138 −$3 -0%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jan 05 $3,153 −$3 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 26? Jan 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 9? Dec 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 5? Dec 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 1? Dec 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 10? Nov 30 $55 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 05 $2,200 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025? Nov 05 $2,208 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $2,196 +$12 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 37d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 100¢ $63 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $52 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 120d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 131d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $29 131d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $28 140d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $38 150d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $4,633 158d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $4,638 158d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $4,655 158d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $4,664 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 17? BUY No 100¢ $33 159d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 165d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,115 171d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,118 171d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3,135 171d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3,138 171d
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $3,150 171d
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $3,153 171d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $53 178d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $40 179d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 181d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 198d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.89 · official $112.89 (match) · 205 history records