Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
49 0x49ff…3292 sports 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$35
other 8% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +50.4% +36.1% 69% 54% -7.6%
≤30d 26 +50.4% +36.1% 69% 54% -7.6%
≤90d 26 +50.4% +36.1% 69% 54% -7.6%
all 26 +50.4% +36.1% 69% 54% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.1% 54% -7.6%
10% +23.0% 31% -16.5%
15% +11.2% 23% -24.5%
20% +0.3% 19% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +138% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 81¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $60 +$2 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -92%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $45 +$7 +16%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $70 +$3 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $80 +$11 +13%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$20 -67%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$80 +1572%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$9 -89%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$16 +80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19 +$8 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 0m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 8m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $50 49m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $62 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $60 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $52 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $45 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $73 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $70 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 96¢ $70 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $80 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $50 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $20 28h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 34h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 37h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde $0 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.25 · official $20.25 (match) · 61 history records