Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:04:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49fe…4d0a other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+3%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate23%59W / 201L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$53
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 33% +$5
crypto 32% +$1
other 31% +$121
finance 3% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 23 +66.5% +50.6% 22% 9% -4.2%
≤90d 105 -5.6% -14.6% 10% 7% +2.6%
all 260 -26.4% -33.4% 23% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 4% -8.8%
10% -39.8% 4% -17.5%
15% -45.6% 4% -25.5%
20% -51.0% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×3.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses59 / 201
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage253d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $139 $139 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 201 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $139 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $139 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$93 +1329%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $42 −$41 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $3 +$97 +3025%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 23 $7 +$98 +1492%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $0 $0 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $0 $0 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 03 $14 −$14 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 03 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 03 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $139 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $139 6d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( BUY No 100¢ $139 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $42 13d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 15d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 15d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 16d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 18d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 19d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 19d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 20d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 21d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 21d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 21d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 21d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 21d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 21d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 22d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.07 · official $139.07 (match) · 557 history records