Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49fe…e817 crypto 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$782 (+4%) realized +$782 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate63%111W / 65L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day89.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$727
7 days+$700
14 days+$700
30 days+$637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$637
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 +9.6% -0.8% 62% 26% -6.2%
≤30d 176 +18.3% +7.1% 63% 31% -6.7%
≤90d 176 +18.3% +7.1% 63% 31% -6.7%
all 176 +18.3% +7.1% 63% 31% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.1% 31% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -3.2% 27% -15.7%
15% -12.5% 16% -23.8%
20% -21.1% 10% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$34 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$782
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses111 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)176 / 176
History coverage14d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day89.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 176 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$16 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $119 −$48 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $126 +$115 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $241 +$120 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $141 +$89 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $160 +$67 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$17 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $239 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $134 +$85 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$163 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$44 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $159 +$91 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $354 +$146 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $160 +$68 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $229 +$87 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $264 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $189 −$127 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $235 −$235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $380 +$650 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $599 −$119 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $235 −$100 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $58 +$41 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $331 −$131 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$27 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $99 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $224 +$72 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $73 −$11 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$37 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$7 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$30 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$14 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $206 −$27 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $414 +$59 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $253 −$16 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $278 −$68 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $248 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $168 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $149 −$11 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$34 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $23 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $40 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $71 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $119 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $241 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $126 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $230 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $227 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $239 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $218 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $134 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $221 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $159 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $178 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $176 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $229 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $160 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $43 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1388 history records