Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49fe…4a0e crypto 246 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (711 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$53 (-5%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%133W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day711.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (711 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -2.8% -12.1% 55% 51% -16.7%
≤30d 246 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 50% -17.0%
≤90d 246 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 50% -17.0%
all 246 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 50% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover711.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 50% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 41% -25.0%
15% -28.6% 29% -32.2%
20% -35.6% 16% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses133 / 113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day711.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -39%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +173%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -57%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -64%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 54¢ $34 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 898 history records