Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49fc…629e crypto 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$176 (+1%) realized +$176 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate76%174W / 56L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$513
7 days−$526
14 days−$526
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$385
sports 1% −$87
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -7.1% -16.0% 71% 43% -18.4%
≤30d 101 -0.3% -9.8% 87% 23% -10.3%
≤90d 139 -1.1% -10.6% 86% 22% -10.5%
all 230 -8.7% -17.4% 76% 22% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 22% -10.9%
10% -25.3% 9% -19.5%
15% -32.5% 5% -27.2%
20% -39.2% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$39 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses174 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)230 / 230
History coverage109d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 230 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$80 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $83 −$28 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $124 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $306 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$31 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $71 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$177 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $502 −$415 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $502 +$24 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $502 +$26 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $502 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $501 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 03 $301 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 03 $306 +$105 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 03 $304 +$58 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 03 $302 +$35 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $302 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 03 $302 +$28 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 03 $328 −$25 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 03 $301 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 03 $306 +$124 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $302 +$27 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 03 $303 +$44 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 03 $302 +$28 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 03 $301 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 03 $163 +$21 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 03 $301 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 03 $301 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 03 $254 +$63 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $252 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 03 $183 +$64 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 03 $151 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 03 $102 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 03 $601 −$601 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $72 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $23 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $116 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 660 history records