Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:06:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49fa…f904 crypto 548 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$128,390 (-33%) realized −$128,420 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%235W / 312L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$719per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$1,007est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$573
7 days+$517
14 days−$96
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$75,807
sports 30% +$6,091
crypto 8% +$450
culture 2% +$1,225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +2.3% -7.5% 56% 56% +16.4%
≤30d 152 +15.9% +4.9% 43% 43% -9.9%
≤90d 450 +6.8% -3.4% 42% 41% -25.9%
all 547 +3.6% -6.3% 43% 41% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 41% -25.1%
10% -15.2% 39% -32.3%
15% ← realistic here -23.4% 36% -38.9%
20% -30.9% 33% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$515 vs −$608 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$128,420
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses235 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,007
Open positions1
Markets (closed)547 / 548
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$719
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 547 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 21¢ 50¢ $21 $51 +$30 (+141%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $46 +$46 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $396 +$436 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $58 +$38 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $73 +$77 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $360 +$216 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $315 +$186 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$9 +61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $87 −$65 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$33 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $60 +$62 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 08 $102 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $73 +$101 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $78 +$26 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 08 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 07 $64 +$22 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$28 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Kuwait win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 05 $19 +$22 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$11 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$28 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 05 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 02 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $49 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $43 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $225 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $223 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $385 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $40 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $14 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $274 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $18 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.62 · official $50.62 (match) · 3500 history records