Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x49f9…32b0
crypto · 465 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$468 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$127 · open −$358
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,400
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$358
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses404 / 59
Open positions7
Markets (closed)463 / 465
History coverage3d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1032.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 463 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$127
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $500 $451 −$49 (-10%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 92¢ 86¢ $413 $386 −$27 (-7%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 90¢ 74¢ $448 $368 −$80 (-18%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $250 $62 −$188 (-75%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 96¢ 93¢ $64 $62 −$2 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 53¢ 66¢ $21 $26 +$5 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 53¢ 84¢ $16 $25 +$9 (+58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 46¢ 34¢ $18 $14 −$5 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 46¢ 16¢ $14 $5 −$9 (-64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $54 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$14 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$15 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$140
other 8% −$345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $19 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 463 +1.1% -8.6% 87% 4% -10.2%
≤30d 463 +1.1% -8.6% 87% 4% -10.2%
≤90d 463 +1.1% -8.6% 87% 4% -10.2%
all 463 +1.1% -8.6% 87% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1032.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 4% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 1% -18.8%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,400.33 · official $1,400.33 (match) · 3500 history records