Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49f9…3aca crypto 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-7%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate59%46W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$10
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -14.3% -22.5% 57% 31% -21.3%
≤30d 78 -11.5% -19.9% 59% 35% -18.7%
≤90d 78 -11.5% -19.9% 59% 35% -18.7%
all 78 -11.5% -19.9% 59% 35% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 35% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 29% -26.4%
15% -34.6% 21% -33.6%
20% -41.0% 15% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses46 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records