Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x49f8…9866 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%43W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$8
crypto 11% −$4
sports 4% −$10
tech 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
world 1% −$16
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 59 -4.1% -13.2% 73% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses43 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage560d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $39 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 03 $15 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 03 $29 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $5,608 −$6 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 24-31? Feb 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Jan 22 $40 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Devin Booker win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jan 21 $18 $0 -0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 27 $22 −$4 -20%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Dec 22 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 22 $29 −$8 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 30d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $28 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 91d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 93d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 121d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 121d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $52 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $48 151d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 181d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $39 182d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $20 212d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $41 212d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 242d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $43 242d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $18 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $37 274d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $5 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 302d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $42 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 334d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? BUY No 100¢ $43 334d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 364d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 97¢ $15 367d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 393d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.95 · official $64.95 (match) · 136 history records