Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49f8…db4b crypto 122 markets active 3h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$95 (+1%) realized +$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%63W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$260
14 days−$134
30 days−$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -17.1% -25.0% 39% 39% -34.0%
≤30d 73 -5.8% -14.8% 45% 45% -20.1%
≤90d 122 +2.5% -7.2% 52% 52% -10.2%
all 122 +2.5% -7.2% 52% 52% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 52% -10.2%
10% -16.1% 51% -18.8%
15% -24.2% 50% -26.6%
20% -31.7% 50% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$61 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses63 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage72d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$29 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$21 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$11 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$30 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$19 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$31 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$40 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$34 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $66 +$50 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $68 −$46 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $67 +$49 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $66 −$38 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$30 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$50 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $56 −$19 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$51 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$51 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $66 −$43 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $63 +$48 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$49 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$50 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$38 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $64 +$50 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$34 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $78 +$65 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$50 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $58 −$41 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $59 +$50 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $49 +$51 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $55 +$49 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$61 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $51 −$34 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $34 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $16 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $35 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $16 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $35 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $14 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.81 · official $40.81 (match) · 550 history records