Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x49f7…046b
sports · 872 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$7,140 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,338 · open +$188
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,361
Realized−$7,338
Unrealized+$188
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses409 / 440
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions23
Markets (closed)849 / 872
History coverage530d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 23 History 849 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
3Jane FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 62¢ 79¢ $191 $245 +$53 (+28%)
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 66¢ $73 $164 +$91 (+124%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $114 $132 +$18 (+15%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 72¢ $94 $104 +$10 (+11%)
3Jane FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 67¢ 80¢ $87 $103 +$16 (+18%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $106 $88 −$18 (-17%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? No 84¢ 84¢ $84 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 81¢ 80¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ 74¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 55¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
3Jane FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 46¢ 75¢ $25 $42 +$16 (+64%)
3Jane FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 76¢ 85¢ $29 $33 +$3 (+12%)
3Jane FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 44¢ 48¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+10%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 75¢ 84¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
3Jane FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 71¢ 72¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
3Jane FDV above $80M one day after launch? No 40¢ 44¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+37%)
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 46¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 20¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-49%)
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+60%)
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $105 +$97 +93%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 −$34 -98%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $13 −$12 -98%
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $556 −$555 -100%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 24 $6 +$5 +89%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 24 $489 +$1 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 24 $116 +$10 +9%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 24 $46 +$3 +6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $92 +$6 +6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $3 +$5 +146%
Will Bayern München score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Champions Lea May 07 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 07 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 06 $44 −$3 -8%
Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants May 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 P May 05 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 16 and 18 seats May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat May 05 $43 −$20 -47%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 05 $229 −$111 -49%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat May 05 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most May 05 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 05 $447 −$136 -30%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 May 05 $131 −$106 -81%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? May 05 $8 +$2 +27%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 05 $5 +$7 +146%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most May 05 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 10 and 12 seats May 05 $49 +$5 +10%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 05 $437 +$83 +19%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win fewer than 10 seats in May 05 $145 +$14 +9%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A May 05 $2,665 +$56 +2%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win 22 or more seats in the May 04 $105 −$104 -98%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 May 01 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 28 $680 +$8 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 18 $11 −$11 -100%
X Money released by April 3, 2026? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NVIDIA dip to $152 in March? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$4,748
other 18% −$1,055
politics 6% −$341
world 1% −$479
economics 1% −$225
crypto 1% −$61
tech 1% −$94
culture 0% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $57 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $61 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $75 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY No 84¢ $85 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $82 1h
3Jane FDV above $80M one day after launch? BUY No 40¢ $8 7h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 24h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $105 24h
3Jane FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 71¢ $14 24h
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? SELL No 36¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
3Jane FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $56 25h
3Jane FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 65¢ $1 25h
3Jane FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 70¢ $70 25h
3Jane FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $14 25h
3Jane FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 44¢ $29 25h
3Jane FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 66¢ $39 25h
3Jane FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $4 26h
3Jane FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $30 26h
3Jane FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $5 26h
3Jane FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $17 26h
3Jane FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 63¢ $55 26h
3Jane FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 27h
3Jane FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 55¢ $72 27h
3Jane FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 27h
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $36 43h
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $10 2d
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -48.9% -53.8% 14% 14% -6.4%
≤30d 15 -42.6% -48.0% 33% 13% -45.1%
≤90d 99 -34.5% -40.8% 35% 19% -27.6%
all 849 -9.2% -17.8% 48% 43% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 43% -17.7%
10% -25.7% 38% -25.5%
15% -32.9% 29% -32.7%
20% -39.4% 27% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,360.78 · official $1,360.78 (match) · 3029 history records