Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x49f7…4871
sports · 162 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$9,431 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,285 · open +$429
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$8,828
Realized+$8,285
Unrealized+$429
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses68 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$901
Open positions12
Markets (closed)149 / 162
Avg bet$403
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 12 History 149 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$565
7 days+$870
14 days+$2,752
30 days+$8,405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1,710 $1,605 −$105 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,400 $1,450 +$50 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1,017 $1,184 +$168 (+16%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,200 $1,150 −$50 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $900 $850 −$50 (-6%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 38¢ 81¢ $378 $814 +$436 (+115%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $590 $605 +$15 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $480 $475 −$5 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 35¢ 36¢ $350 $355 +$5 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $250 $245 −$5 (-2%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+1%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 47¢ 19¢ $51 $21 −$30 (-59%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $880 $0 −$880 (-100%)
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Zhejiang Lions 25¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $490 $0 −$490 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 31¢ 0¢ $877 $0 −$877 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Timberwolves 23¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Kings vs. Hornets Kings 9¢ 0¢ $997 $0 −$997 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Cavaliers 36¢ 0¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Under 36¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Shanghai Sharks 45¢ 0¢ $414 $0 −$414 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 Under 33¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $597 +$16 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $300 −$15 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $696 +$304 +44%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,640 +$8 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,181 −$129 -11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $925 −$59 -6%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $185 −$20 -11%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $185 +$9 +5%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $185 −$20 -11%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $72 −$4 -6%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $62 −$33 -53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $347 −$340 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $254 −$51 -20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $600 −$228 -38%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $1,129 +$871 +77%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 09 $1,036 +$964 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,596 −$839 -53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $505 +$993 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 06 $540 −$431 -80%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $126 −$125 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $377 +$623 +165%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $415 −$414 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 02 $508 −$500 -98%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $158 +$342 +216%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $1,105 +$35 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $220 +$189 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $835 +$1,165 +140%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $557 +$443 +79%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 29 $5 +$4 +97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $880 −$877 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $3,201 +$827 +26%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 27 $1,045 +$348 +33%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $557 +$443 +79%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 May 26 $478 −$134 -28%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 26 $161 −$82 -51%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1,156 +$406 +35%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $264 −$47 -18%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $537 +$463 +86%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $457 +$543 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $7,403 +$2,627 +36%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $1,774 −$420 -24%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 22 $880 −$880 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 22 $437 −$430 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $367 −$360 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 21 $497 −$490 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $570 +$430 +75%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 21 $537 +$463 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $337 −$171 -51%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 May 20 $540 +$306 +57%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $687 −$13 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 74% +$11,054
other 20% −$298
crypto 5% −$2,123
finance 1% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $50 30m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $102 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $597 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $487 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 2h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $613 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $304 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 32¢ $285 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $401 5h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,040 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $614 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $622 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $834 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $294 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $257 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,648 15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1,051 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $866 15h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $165 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $223 15h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $194 15h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $165 15h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $68 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.7% -12.9% 35% 20% -3.0%
≤30d 61 +19.3% +8.0% 54% 44% +8.3%
≤90d 149 +0.0% -9.5% 46% 39% +4.4%
all 149 +0.0% -9.5% 46% 39% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 39% +4.4%
10% -18.2% 36% -5.6%
15% -26.1% 30% -14.7%
20% -33.3% 26% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,827.72 · official $8,927.72 · 734 history records