Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49f4…b8b2 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-5%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.2% -13.4% 73% 47% -13.0%
≤30d 15 -4.2% -13.4% 73% 47% -13.0%
≤90d 15 -4.2% -13.4% 73% 47% -13.0%
all 15 -4.2% -13.4% 73% 47% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 47% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 27% -21.3%
15% -29.2% 7% -28.9%
20% -36.2% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 76¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.29 · official $27.42 (match) · 34 history records