Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:52:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49f3…4649 crypto 360 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$431 (-2%) realized −$431 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate86%308W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$28
14 days−$172
30 days−$585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$585
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +4.7% -5.3% 88% 88% -6.5%
≤30d 360 -2.0% -11.4% 86% 34% -11.9%
≤90d 360 -2.0% -11.4% 86% 34% -11.9%
all 360 -2.0% -11.4% 86% 34% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 34% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 9% -20.4%
15% -27.6% 3% -28.1%
20% -34.7% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$38 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$431
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses308 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)360 / 360
History coverage22d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 360 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$6 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$6 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$29 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $33 −$33 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $33 −$17 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $34 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $29 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $22 +$5 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $32 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $32 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $31 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 712 history records