Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x49f2…4079 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-5%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$9
14 days−$12
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$17
sports 46% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -31.2% -37.7% 33% 33% -16.2%
≤30d 8 -28.2% -35.1% 38% 38% +4.3%
≤90d 15 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 47% -1.4%
all 15 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 47% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 47% -1.4%
10% -27.6% 47% -10.9%
15% -34.6% 47% -19.5%
20% -41.0% 47% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage38d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 58¢ $75 $75 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $34 +$43 +123%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $18 +$16 +88%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $66 +$41 +61%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 25 $11 +$11 +103%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $11 +$6 +54%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$14 +73%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $9 +$11 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.71 · official $74.71 (match) · 33 history records