Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49f2…b3c3 crypto 801 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,650 (-5%) realized −$16,650 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%461W / 339L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,356
7 days−$2,287
14 days−$4,416
30 days−$11,593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$22,571
other 2% −$390
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -8.2% -17.0% 61% 57% -14.3%
≤30d 409 -2.2% -11.6% 61% 56% -17.2%
≤90d 800 -3.2% -12.4% 58% 52% -15.9%
all 800 -3.2% -12.4% 58% 52% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 52% -15.9%
10% -20.8% 44% -24.0%
15% -28.5% 36% -31.3%
20% -35.5% 29% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$518) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$383 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16,650
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses461 / 339
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)800 / 801
History coverage78d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 800 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 224 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $217 −$210 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $133 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $144 +$110 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$89 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $153 +$56 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $177 +$74 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $137 +$35 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$37 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $183 −$180 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $152 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$56 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$57 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $75 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $179 −$175 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $415 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $96 −$91 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $299 +$204 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $155 +$135 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $361 −$355 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$158 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $110 −$107 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $164 −$160 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $72 +$60 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $66 +$47 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $43 +$24 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $289 −$280 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$35 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $154 +$88 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $345 −$330 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $459 −$450 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $513 +$288 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $435 +$72 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $295 +$148 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $195 −$190 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $65 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $74 −$72 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $217 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $133 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $251 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $177 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $57 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $155 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $258 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $117 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $117 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $60 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $75 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $71 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $179 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $415 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $96 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $1.03 (match) · 1690 history records