Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49f2…d7b4 sports 307 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34,158 (-10%) realized −$31,455 · open −$2,703
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate61%111W / 70L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,121per market
Trades / day132.5pace
Fees−$5,083est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$20,955now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,667
7 days−$13,908
14 days−$18,474
30 days−$16,728
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$5,681
other 18% +$7,724
politics 13% −$7,952
world 9% −$21,529
tech 5% +$6
finance 3% −$3,376
culture 0% +$12
crypto 0% +$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +22.7% +11.1% 54% 27% -20.4%
≤30d 181 +20.0% +8.6% 61% 24% -16.8%
≤90d 181 +20.0% +8.6% 61% 24% -16.8%
all 181 +20.0% +8.6% 61% 24% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.6% 24% -16.8%
10% -1.8% 19% -24.7%
15% ← realistic here -11.3% 14% -32.0%
20% -20.0% 13% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,421) neutral
Persistence
early +22% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$317 vs −$838 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$20,955
Realized−$31,455
Unrealized−$2,703
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses111 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$5,083
Open positions162
Markets (closed)181 / 307
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$1,121
Trades / day132.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 162 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 90¢ 52¢ $8,824 $5,147 −$3,677 (-42%)
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 78¢ 85¢ $3,646 $3,973 +$327 (+9%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 24¢ $141 $1,100 +$960 (+682%)
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch No 34¢ 44¢ $812 $1,028 +$215 (+26%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 83¢ 84¢ $611 $615 +$3 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $286 $590 +$304 (+106%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $531 $540 +$9 (+2%)
Will Jesús Luzardo strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 96¢ 97¢ $519 $526 +$7 (+1%)
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 42¢ $722 $520 −$202 (-28%)
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $424 $431 +$7 (+2%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $448 $407 −$41 (-9%)
Will Paul Skenes strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 92¢ 93¢ $346 $350 +$4 (+1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 76¢ 80¢ $313 $328 +$14 (+5%)
Will Ben Rice win the 2026 American League MVP Award? No 93¢ 91¢ $318 $311 −$7 (-2%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30? No 81¢ 94¢ $244 $284 +$40 (+16%)
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? No 90¢ 90¢ $270 $268 −$2 (-1%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 56¢ 45¢ $287 $229 −$58 (-20%)
Will Mark Zuckerberg buy the Seattle Seahawks? No 95¢ 62¢ $320 $208 −$112 (-35%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 44¢ 44¢ $210 $207 −$2 (-1%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $436 $198 −$239 (-55%)
Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks? No 95¢ 95¢ $195 $195 −$0 (-0%)
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 11¢ 42¢ $46 $168 +$122 (+268%)
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $158 $161 +$3 (+2%)
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? No 10¢ 10¢ $153 $149 −$3 (-2%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 53¢ 52¢ $133 $131 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $8,519 +$864 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $27 +$8,978 +33061%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,275 $0 -0%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,456 −$24 -0%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Break Single-Game Finals Blocks Record? Jun 17 $0 $0 -28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Joan Garcia be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Jun 17 $4,500 +$119 +3%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Will any match last over 70 minutes at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Nico Williams be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Martín Zubimendi be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will any team get mega creeps at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 17 $96 −$56 -58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $520 −$520 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $337 −$337 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $640 −$640 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $370 −$370 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $984 −$984 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 17 $1,619 +$382 +24%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 17 $118 +$3 +3%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,097 +$1,341 +64%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13,500 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $425 +$75 +18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $107 +$96 +90%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3,400 +$50 +2%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9,577 +$19 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $587 $0 -0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22,318 −$22,195 -99%
Will an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Jun 16 $49 +$2 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $327 −$7 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $325 +$175 +54%
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $17 +$133 +775%
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -53%
Will Marc Cucurella be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St SELL No 45¢ $2 9m
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St SELL No 45¢ $8 25m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 74¢ $7 55m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 74¢ $2,814 55m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $135 1h
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag SELL Yes 86¢ $46 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 44¢ $98 2h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 77¢ $4 2h
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag SELL Yes 86¢ $209 2h
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag SELL Yes 86¢ $25 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $49 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $1 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $6 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $1,217 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $3 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $4 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $67 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $4 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $15 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $35 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $48 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $2 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $6 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $6 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $40 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $3 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $1 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $1 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $3 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,954.84 · official $20,956.09 (match) · 3500 history records