Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x49f0…f1b6 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$115 (+0%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%17W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$24
politics 34% −$17
sports 6% +$154
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 +0.8% -8.8% 8% 6% -9.5%
all 119 +6.9% -3.3% 14% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 11% -9.3%
10% -12.6% 8% -18.0%
15% -21.0% 6% -25.9%
20% -28.8% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×13.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses17 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage116d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $430 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $408 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $370 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $261 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $347 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $266 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $283 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $378 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $342 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $285 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $284 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $256 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $224 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $581 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $215 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $296 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 01 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $828 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $327 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $368 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $309 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $287 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $276 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $332 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $279 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $388 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $372 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $359 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $381 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 5h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 9h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 12h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 25h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 25h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $51 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $51 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 22d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 22d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 22d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 22d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 22d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $356 27d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $356 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $297 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $297 30d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $370 30d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $370 31d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 31d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 32d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $347 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.97 · official $56.97 (match) · 356 history records