Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49ef…2dbc crypto 1416 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$234 (+545%) realized +$234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%746W / 1020L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$58
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$12
other 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+52.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 476 +225.5% +194.5% 39% 38% -68.4%
≤30d 599 +178.7% +152.1% 39% 38% -67.1%
≤90d 1487 +73.5% +57.0% 40% 39% -57.2%
all 1766 +68.2% +52.2% 42% 41% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.2% 41% -44.9%
10% ← realistic here +37.6% 40% -50.1%
15% +24.3% 38% -55.0%
20% +12.1% 36% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +117% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses746 / 1020
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1766 / 1416
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1766 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 483 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$15 +41914%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$12 +50106%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$8 +62193%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 1AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$5 +49900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 12PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$5 +33376%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$3 +33399%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$3 +52930%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$3 +45261%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +33330%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +58095%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 4AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +56900%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 5PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +35900%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +57733%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$4 +158744%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +53233%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +12700%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 5PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 8PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$8 -227%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 8AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +32%
XRP Up or Down - February 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +9318%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -35%
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 7AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 2PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +590%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 5AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 4AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +900%
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +3251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 2PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.51 · official $66.61 · 3500 history records