Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49ed…0669 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$14 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day89.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$8
sports 23% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.4% -4.7% 50% 50% -5.2%
≤30d 2 +5.4% -4.7% 50% 50% -5.2%
≤90d 2 +5.4% -4.7% 50% 50% -5.2%
all 2 +5.4% -4.7% 50% 50% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 50% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -14.3%
15% -22.1% 0% -22.5%
20% -29.7% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$630
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day89.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 84¢ 96¢ $343 $388 +$45 (+13%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? No 70¢ 84¢ $103 $122 +$20 (+19%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 47¢ 20¢ $245 $106 −$138 (-57%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-75%)
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Federico Coria 48¢ 10¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-78%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $34 −$2 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $11 2m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 93¢ $27 3m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $10 3m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $10 5m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 85¢ $26 7m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 43¢ $20 11m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $27 11m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 85¢ $24 12m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 13m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 54¢ $20 13m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 84¢ $24 14m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $22 15m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $17 17m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $16 18m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 19m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 82¢ $21 19m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 54¢ $15 20m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 52¢ $14 22m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $21 22m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $20 22m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 52¢ $13 22m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $20 23m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 82¢ $19 28m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $11 43m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 52¢ $14 44m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $10 45m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 45m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 47m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $9 47m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.46 · official $630.46 (match) · 91 history records