Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x49ec…a614 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+6%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate74%23W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$11
sports 9% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +1.4% -8.2% 74% 65% -4.3%
≤30d 31 +1.4% -8.2% 74% 65% -4.3%
≤90d 31 +1.4% -8.2% 74% 65% -4.3%
all 31 +1.4% -8.2% 74% 65% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 65% -4.3%
10% -17.0% 39% -13.4%
15% -25.0% 13% -21.8%
20% -32.4% 10% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 +$3 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $4 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 9¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records