Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:50:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
49 0x49eb…cf37 world 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$24,931 (+13%) realized +$38,571 · open −$13,640
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$9,434per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$31,168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,607
14 days+$35,152
30 days+$35,839
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% +$33,143
other 5% −$5,010
sports 0% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -39.7% -45.5% 33% 33% +43.4%
≤30d 5 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 60% +52.7%
≤90d 18 +15.0% +4.0% 61% 39% +16.0%
all 18 +15.0% +4.0% 61% 39% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.0% 39% +16.0%
10% -5.9% 22% +4.9%
15% ← realistic here -15.0% 22% -5.3%
20% -23.4% 22% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$14,231) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,213 vs −$662 · ×6.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.0 per $1 lost it wins $10.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$31,168
Realized+$38,571
Unrealized−$13,640
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage68d
Avg bet$9,434
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 65¢ 48¢ $34,273 $25,485 −$8,788 (-26%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $8,769 $4,044 −$4,725 (-54%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes $1,765 $1,639 −$126 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $305 −$305 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2,406 +$1,945 +81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $45,268 +$33,545 +74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $4,073 +$688 +17%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $4,994 −$3,643 -73%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 21 $14,231 +$485 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 18 $25,534 +$1,132 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $4,030 +$3,839 +95%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 11 $285 −$285 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $118 −$118 -100%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $11 +$51 +442%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 05 $17,144 +$1,681 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 17 $15,097 +$2,047 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 16 $3,000 −$111 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 16 $6,000 +$260 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $1,000 −$139 -14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 15 $4,421 +$667 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $309 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $685 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $771 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1,838 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $12 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $20 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $66 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $195 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $31 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $897 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $23 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $3,100 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $46 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,793 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $297 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $109 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $109 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $322 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,168.25 · official $31,168.25 (match) · 3246 history records