Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49e9…6f8e world 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%29W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$11
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$13
politics 21% −$3
sports 16% −$9
other 12% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.3% -8.4% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 30 +44.7% +30.9% 37% 10% -8.3%
≤90d 83 +15.9% +4.8% 34% 4% -9.3%
all 86 +14.1% +3.2% 34% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -6.7% 1% -18.2%
15% -15.7% 1% -26.1%
20% -24.0% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses29 / 57
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage532d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $71 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $44 +$9 +19%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $47 −$1 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $44 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $2 $0 +15%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $114 +$5 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $66 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $22 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $51 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $40 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $41 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $33 +$4 +14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $43 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $37 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $72 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $36 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $36 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $177 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $84 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $77 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $43 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $80 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $39 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $39 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $38 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $38 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $58 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $58 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $52 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $14 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $23 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $21 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $16 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $16 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $16 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.23 · official $0.00 · 361 history records