Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
49 0x49e6…6cf1 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$13
politics 25% $0
other 11% $0
crypto 8% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.6% -8.0% 33% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 8% -6.6%
≤90d 14 +3.1% -6.8% 36% 14% -6.5%
all 32 +1.4% -8.3% 41% 6% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 6% -8.1%
10% -17.0% 3% -16.9%
15% -25.1% 0% -24.9%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.79 per $1 lost it wins $3.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage284d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $13 +$1 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $58 +$13 +23%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $44 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $27 −$3 -10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $14 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +19%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Dec 05 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in Septe Oct 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 26 $29 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 26 $29 $0 -0%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 26 $29 $0 +1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 23 $9 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 05 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 16 $28 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 14 $28 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 14 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $35 13h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $27 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $19 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $46 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $28 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $39 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $11 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.21 (match) · 102 history records