Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49e2…0124 other 101 markets active 3h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$327 (-1%) realized −$389 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate53%60W / 53L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$7
14 days+$10
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$75
crypto 20% +$13
finance 7% +$3
sports 3% −$465
world 1% +$9
economics 1% +$3
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -74.0% -76.5% 26% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 53 -48.8% -53.7% 51% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 113 -34.2% -40.5% 53% 5% -11.0%
all 113 -34.2% -40.5% 53% 5% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 5% -11.0%
10% -46.2% 5% -19.5%
15% -51.4% 4% -27.3%
20% -56.1% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1,622
Realized−$389
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses60 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions50
Markets (closed)113 / 101
History coverage61d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $928 $957 +$29 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $438 $436 −$2 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $28 +$4 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+55%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+40%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $19 −$3 (-12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $19 −$5 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $2 $18 +$17 (+1007%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $2 $13 +$12 (+695%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+551%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $10 +$9 (+527%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+503%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+299%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+239%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+167%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $381 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $996 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2,682 +$11 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $948 +$32 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,386 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1,749 +$15 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $473 +$13 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $798 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $795 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1,619 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $795 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $798 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $799 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $794 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $176 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $499 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $595 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $599 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 27 $1,192 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 26 $932 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $598 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $97 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $97 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $97 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $82 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $931 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $998 15h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $381 21h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $438 21h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $996 21h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,896 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,893 27h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $267 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,622.26 · official $1,622.38 (match) · 400 history records