Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x49e1…7bf6
crypto · 735 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,330 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,348 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$570
Realized−$5,348
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses312 / 573
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions77
Markets (closed)885 / 735
History coverage16d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day187.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 77 History 885 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,618
7 days−$5,631
14 days−$5,114
30 days−$5,348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 79¢ 78¢ $39 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 82¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? No 61¢ 62¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? No 44¢ 44¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 44¢ 42¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 42¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 49¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 78¢ 78¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 89¢ 88¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 52¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Gen.G 50¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+101%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 80¢ 92¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 55¢ 55¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% +$293
sports 9% −$21
other 2% −$40
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 89¢ $4 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 89¢ $4 24m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 89¢ $4 24m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 25m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 25m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $2 28m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $14 28m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 85¢ $4 30m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $4 33m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 33m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 62¢ $3 37m
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) SELL Gen.G 99¢ $19 38m
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $3 42m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $4 47m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $3 51m
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $3 55m
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $3 55m
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $3 55m
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $3 55m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $4 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $4 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 70¢ $4 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 70¢ $4 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 71¢ $4 1h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $3 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $4 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $4 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $4 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 419 -65.6% -68.9% 15% 13% -72.7%
≤30d 885 -29.6% -36.3% 35% 33% -25.2%
≤90d 885 -29.6% -36.3% 35% 33% -25.2%
all 885 -29.6% -36.3% 35% 33% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover187.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.3% 33% -25.2%
10% ← realistic here -42.4% 28% -32.4%
15% -47.9% 22% -38.9%
20% -53.0% 15% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.83 · official $569.85 (match) · 3500 history records