Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x49e0…e671 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$375per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$10
sports 21% +$8
crypto 18% $0
economics 11% +$1
politics 11% +$1
world 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 14 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage60d
Avg bet$375
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $656 $656 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun Jun 20 $276 +$1 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $379 +$1 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $377 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $276 +$1 +0%
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May? Jun 11 $280 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $353 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $647 +$6 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 31 $279 $0 +0%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%? May 31 $367 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $277 +$1 +0%
Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary elec May 21 $640 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 04 $636 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $656 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $379 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $75 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $377 7d
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun BUY No 100¢ $276 11d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $276 11d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 11d
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May? BUY No 100¢ $280 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $353 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 99¢ $6 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 99¢ $640 24d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $279 27d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $277 30d
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%? BUY No 100¢ $367 32d
Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary elec BUY No 100¢ $640 39d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 99¢ $636 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.09 · official $656.09 (match) · 31 history records