Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x49e0…9af1 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,082 (-23%) realized −$1,021 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,939now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.4% -16.2% 62% 50% -45.5%
≤30d 8 -7.4% -16.2% 62% 50% -45.5%
≤90d 8 -7.4% -16.2% 62% 50% -45.5%
all 8 -7.4% -16.2% 62% 50% -45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 50% -45.5%
10% -24.2% 50% -50.7%
15% -31.5% 25% -55.5%
20% -38.2% 25% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$500 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,939
Realized−$1,021
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Collignon 62¢ 58¢ $500 $470 −$30 (-6%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Jerome Kym 80¢ 80¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Oliver Bonding 73¢ 72¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien Yunchaokete Bu 91¢ 90¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Franco Roncadelli Dane Sweeny 90¢ 89¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Kwon (-1.5) vs Izquierdo (+1.5) Kwon 65¢ 60¢ $300 $279 −$21 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $97 +$113 +117%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $455 −$450 -99%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $213 +$137 +65%
Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Gannon (+1.5) Jun 17 $211 +$48 +23%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $604 −$600 -99%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $456 −$450 -99%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $272 +$83 +31%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $451 +$28 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Dane Sweeny 90¢ $301 1h
Set Handicap: Kwon (-1.5) vs Izquierdo (+1.5) BUY Kwon 65¢ $303 1h
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Collignon 62¢ $506 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno BUY Jerome Kym 80¢ $302 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding BUY Oliver Bonding 73¢ $302 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien BUY Yunchaokete Bu 91¢ $301 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 45¢ $97 32h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Kilian Feldbausch 64¢ $455 2d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 60¢ $213 4d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 78¢ $604 4d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $456 4d
Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Gannon (+1.5) BUY Dimitrov 81¢ $211 5d
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 76¢ $272 5d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 94¢ $451 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,938.83 · official $1,938.83 (match) · 19 history records