Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49df…9a8e crypto 58 markets active 21h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$159 (-21%) realized −$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$1
sports 40% −$65
other 17% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -24.3% -31.5% 40% 32% -32.0%
≤30d 58 -24.1% -31.3% 36% 31% -32.3%
≤90d 58 -24.1% -31.3% 36% 31% -32.3%
all 58 -24.1% -31.3% 36% 31% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 31% -32.3%
10% -37.9% 29% -38.8%
15% -43.9% 28% -44.7%
20% -49.4% 24% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage7d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Michael Olise: 2+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 −$1 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$12 +218%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $55 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $68 +$28 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $65 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$10 +140%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$8 -82%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $67 −$50 -73%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$11 -51%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$8 +91%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +88%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $10 −$4 -35%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Carolin Raschdorf vs Denisa Zoldakova Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$7 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 21h
Michael Olise: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $5 21h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $16 21h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $17 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 17¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 24¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 52¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 62¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 92¢ $35 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 52¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $61 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $67 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $61 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 24¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 13¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records