Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49d6…ac38 other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 231L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$34
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$44
sports 24% −$21
politics 9% −$13
culture 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% +$5
economics 3% −$5
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage134d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $716 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $736 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $164 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $536 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $246 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $230 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $290 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $139 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $472 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $222 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $330 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $239 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $194 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $385 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $239 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $504 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $145 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $460 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $320 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $480 −$3 -1%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $316 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $386 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $62 1h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $62 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $62 10h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $62 11h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 13h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 15h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $62 25h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $62 26h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $62 32h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 34h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $62 38h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $63 39h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 41h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 43h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 47h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $63 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $63 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $34 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $29 3d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $64 3d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1389 history records