Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x49d5…5411 tech 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$641now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$4
tech 19% +$1
sports 15% +$2
crypto 13% +$1
world 10% +$1
politics 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$641
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage82d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $346 $346 −$0 (-0%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $295 $295 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $640 +$1 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $637 +$2 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $638 +$1 +0%
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation Jun 14 $228 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $409 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May? Jun 11 $408 $0 +0%
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $73 $0 +0%
Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02? Jun 04 $327 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $236 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $633 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of April? May 04 $131 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $285 end of April? May 04 $503 +$1 +0%
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13 Apr 22 $633 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? Apr 15 $632 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $295 1h
Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $346 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 100¢ $640 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $618 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $19 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $638 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $409 14d
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May? BUY No 100¢ $408 24d
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation BUY No 100¢ $228 24d
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? BUY No 100¢ $73 32d
Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02? BUY No 100¢ $327 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $236 32d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 100¢ $633 33d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $285 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $503 61d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $131 61d
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13 BUY No 100¢ $633 73d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $632 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $640.82 · official $640.82 (match) · 31 history records