Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x49d5…8cf1 crypto 1754 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$494 (+4%) realized −$1,935 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate77%1652W / 482L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day53.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,071
7 days−$2,060
14 days−$2,030
30 days−$1,966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 901 -40.6% -46.2% 55% 6% -42.8%
≤30d 1983 -17.7% -25.6% 76% 11% -23.3%
≤90d 2134 -16.2% -24.2% 77% 11% -22.2%
all 2134 -16.2% -24.2% 77% 11% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 11% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 5% -29.6%
15% -38.1% 3% -36.4%
20% -44.2% 2% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$1,935
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1652 / 482
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2134 / 1754
History coverage34d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day53.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 2PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.20 · official $12.00 (match) · 3500 history records